- Fuel prices have historically tracked those of crude oil, the largest input cost
- EIA projects stable prices to 2020, but a wider difference between diesel and gasoline
Changes in gasoline and diesel prices mirror those of crude oil prices, which are determined in the global crude oil market by the worldwide demand for and supply of crude oil. Per-barrel costs for crude oil – the No. 1 factor in the cost of producing gasoline and diesel – reflecting the global oil oil supply/demand balance and inventories, among other factors.
With solid economic growth, U.S. petroleum demand (20.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2019) ran at its highest level since 2007 and was up by 178 thousand barrels per day from Q1 2019. Gasoline prices ($2.72 per gallon nationwide average in June 2019 per AAA) have decreased 6 percent year-on-year in tandem with Diesel and Crude oil prices.